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    Wednesday, September 1st, 2004
    ubaldus
    11:07a

    From Wretchard

    Here's an interesting game theoretic analysis of the terrorist hostage-taking tactic from Zak. The underscores are mine.

    It is clear that the kidnappings in Iraq are what they call a repeated (or iterated) game, which means in game theory that the results from one round of the game influence the actions taken by both players in the next round. In the case of the kidnappings, the game is repeated because the kidnappers get good publicity and most likely money under the table each time they kidnap somebody. There doesnt have to be a clear win every time like with the Filipinos (who withdrew their force when a truckdriver was kidnapped) to make the game worth playing for them. They still get something every time they play (if only publicity), so there is no reason for them to quit. Frankly, theyd be stupid to quit. Would you if you found a slot machine in Vegas that kept coming up 777?

    The trick is to change the incentive structure of the game. I think this is easy: just have any country whose citizen has been kidnapped pledge to send a thousand (or other arbitrarily large number) more troops to Iraq for every individual kidnapped. As each kidnapping made things harder and harder for the kidnappers, and instead resulted in negative publicity for them (in the form of more foreign soldiers in the country because of their actions), I think the game would come to a conclusion really, really quickly.

    Of course, this would require both cooperation and political will on the part of the participants, so dont look for this obvious and most likely effective strategy to be taken any time soon.

    It's an idea in the right direction, but I'm not sure it would be so easy. Basically, the idea is penalize the enemy for every turn he takes at the murder game till he gives up playing it. The problem is that most nations, and most certainly Nepal, lack the ability to penalize terrorists effectively by sending professional forces. Meting out a negative payment is hard for them to do. One way around this for poor victims is to inflict proxy punishment on an easy target. That's what collective retribution is about; and when Russians blow up Chechen towns or round up relatives of terrorists in retaliation they are essentially dealing out negative payouts. But in the end, terrorists who are hardened to killing are indifferent even to the fates of their relatives. In the last analysis the terrorists and their masterminds have to be killed individually. Just my two cents.

    kerogazz_batyr
    7:07p
    îÅËÌÅÓÓÁ ÏÔÍÁÚÙ×ÁÅÔÓÑ
    http://www.novopol.ru/material327.html
    reaction_und_co
    7:03p
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    gollie
    10:58a
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    man_with_dogs
    6:49p
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    ivand
    6:27p
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    á ÕÂÉÔØ ÄÅÓÑÔÏË-ÄÒÕÇÏÊ ÌÀÄÅÊ ÔÁËÉ ÍÏÖÅÔ.
    mancunian
    3:29p
    32 Á×ÇÕÓÔÁ 2004 ÇÏÄÁ
    I see trees of green, red roses too
    I see them bloom for me and you
    And I think to myself, what a wonderful world



    I see skies of blue and clouds of white
    The bright blessed day, the dark sacred night
    And I think to myself, what a wonderful world



    The colors of the rainbow, so pretty in the sky
    Are also on the faces of people going by
    I see friends shaking hands, saying "How do you do"
    They're really saying, I love you



    I hear babies crying, I watch them grow
    They'll learn much more than I'll ever know
    And I think to myself, what a wonderful world
    Yes, I think to myself, what a wonderful world

    strelitz
    4:31p
    õÄÉ×ÉÔÅÌØÎÙÅ ÍÅÔÁÍÏÒÆÏÚÙ îÁÔÕÒÙ.
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    "×ÒÁÇÏÍ" ÐÒÏÓÔÏ ÏÔÔÏÇÏ, ÞÔÏ ×Ù Ï ÅÇÏ ÒÁÂÏÔÅ ÎÉÞÅÇÏ ÎÅ ÚÎÁÅÔÅ - ÎÅÚÒÅÌÏÓÔØ É ÄÕÒÎÏ×ËÕÓÉÅ.

    Current Mood: content
    ivand
    6:27p
    ëÏÎÄÉÔÅÒÓËÏÅ.
    üËÌÅÒË.
    Thursday, September 2nd, 2004
    swilf
    1:07a
    "âÌÜÊÄ" ×ÓÅ-ÔÁËÉ ÚÁÂÁ×ÎÙÊ. ðÅÒÅÓÍÁÔÒÉ×ÁÑ, ËÒÏÍÅ ÏÞÅ×ÉÄÎÙÈ ×ÅÝÅÊ ÚÁÍÅÔÉÌ ÅÝÅ ËÏÅ-ÞÔÏ: ËÏÇÄÁ ×ÁÍÐÉÒ æÒÏÓÔ ÒÁÓÓÕÖÄÁÅÔ ÎÁ ÔÅÍÕ ×ÙÓÛÁÑ-ÒÁÓÁ-×ÙÖÉ×ÁÅÔ-ÓÉÌØÎÅÊÛÉÊ, ËÁÍÅÒÁ ÐÏ ÏÞÅÒÅÄÉ ×ÙÈ×ÁÔÙ×ÁÅÔ ÌÉÃÁ ÐÒÏÈÏÖÉÈ ÎÁ ÕÌÉÃÅ ÁÍÅÒÉËÁÎÓËÏÇÏ ÇÏÒÏÄÁ. CÐÌÏÛØ ÁÚÉÁÔÙ.
    Wednesday, September 1st, 2004
    kouzdra 6:07p
    ðÏÞÅÍÕ ÎÅ ÓÌÅÄÕÅÔ "×ÏÅ×ÁÔØ Ó ÔÅÒÒÏÒÉÚÍÏÍ"
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    ÷Ï ×ÔÏÒÕÀ ÍÉÒÏ×ÕÀ ×ÏÊÎÕ ÓÏÀÚÎÉËÁÍÉ ÂÙÌ ÐÒÏÉÚ×ÅÄÅÎ ÏÐÙÔ Ó ÄÅÊÓÔ×ÉÔÅÌØÎÏ ÍÁÓÓÏ×ÙÍ (ÐÏ ÓÁÍÙÍ ÓËÒÏÍÎÙÍ ÏÃÅÎËÁÍ - ÐÏÌÍÉÌÌÉÏÎÁ ÕÂÉÔÙÈ) ÃÅÌÅÎÁÐÒÁ×ÌÅÎÎÙÍ ÉÓÔÒÅÂÌÅÎÉÅÍ ÍÉÒÎÏÇÏ ÎÁÓÅÌÅÎÉÑ. òÅÚÕÌØÔÁÔ ÓÏÂÓÔ×ÅÎÎÏ ÔÅÒÒÏÒÉÓÔÉÞÅÓËÏÊ ÞÁÓÔÉ ÂÏÍÂÅÖÅË ÏËÁÚÁÌÓÑ ÐÏ-×ÉÄÉÍÏÍÕ ÄÁÖÅ ÏÔÒÉÃÁÔÅÌØÎÙÍ.

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    é ÚÁÄÁÞÁ - ÎÅ "ÂÏÒØÂÁ Ó ÔÅÒÒÏÒÏÍ", Á ×ÙÉÇÒÙÛ ÞÅÞÅÎÓËÏÊ ×ÏÊÎÙ. üÔÏ ÒÅÛÉÔ É ÐÒÏÂÌÅÍÕ ÔÅÒÒÏÒÉÚÍÁ × ÔÏÍ ÞÉÓÌÅ. ëÒÏÍÅ ÔÏÇÏ - ÜÔÏ ÂÏÌÅÅ ÒÅÁÌÉÓÔÉÞÎÏ.

    PS: ëÓÔÁÔÉ Õ æÕÌÌÅÒÁ ÔÁÍ ÖÅ (http://militera.lib.ru/h/fuller/11.html) ÅÓÔØ ÏÞÅÎØ ÁËÔÕÁÌØÎÏÅ ÚÁÍÅÞÁÎÉÅ - "èÏÔÑ ÓÒÅÄÓÔ×Á, ÐÒÉÍÅÎÑÀÝÉÅÓÑ ÄÌÑ ÄÏÓÔÉÖÅÎÉÑ ÚÄÒÁ×ÙÈ ÃÅÌÅÊ, É ÂÙ×ÁÀÔ ÉÎÏÇÄÁ ÖÅÓÔÏËÉÍÉ, ÏÄÎÁËÏ × ÓÌÕÞÁÅ ÂÅÚÕÍÎÙÈ ÃÅÌÅÊ ÏÎÉ ×ÓÅÇÄÁ ÖÅÓÔÏËÉ. éÍÅÎÎÏ ÐÏ ÜÔÏÊ ÐÒÉÞÉÎÅ ËÒÅÓÔÏ×ÙÅ ÐÏÈÏÄÙ É ÇÒÁÖÄÁÎÓËÉÅ ×ÏÊÎÙ ÔÁË ÕÎÉÞÔÏÖÁÀÔ ÄÕÈÏ×ÎÙÅ É ÍÁÔÅÒÉÁÌØÎÙÅ ÃÅÎÎÏÓÔÉ É ÇÕÂÑÔ ÔÁË ÍÎÏÇÏ ÌÀÄÅÊ. ÷ÔÏÒÁÑ ÍÉÒÏ×ÁÑ ×ÏÊÎÁ ÂÙÌÁ ÏÄÎÏ×ÒÅÍÅÎÎÏ É ËÒÅÓÔÏ×ÙÍ ÐÏÈÏÄÏÍ É Å×ÒÏÐÅÊÓËÏÊ ÇÒÁÖÄÁÎÓËÏÊ ×ÏÊÎÏÊ."

    ÷ÏÔ ÎÅ ÎÁÄÏ "ËÒÅÓÔÏ×ÙÈ ÐÏÈÏÄÏ× ÐÒÏÔÉ× ÔÅÒÒÏÒÉÚÍÁ".

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    6:12p
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    Current Music: Led Zeppelin - what is and what should never be
    dodododo
    4:12p
    ÐÒÉÌÅÔÅÌÁ
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    ÎÏ ÐÒÉÛÌÏÓØ ÓËÒÏÍÎÏ ÕÄÏ×ÌÅÔ×ÏÒÉÔØÓÑ ÄÏÓÔÉÇÎÕÔÙÍ.

    3.ÍÏÊ ÎÅÍÅÃËÉÊ Å-ÍÅÊÌ ÞÔÏ-ÔÏ ÚÁÇÌÀÞÉÌ, ÔÁË ÞÔÏ ÐÉÛÉÔÅ ÐÏËÁ ÎÁ ÑÎÄÅËÓ.

    4.ÐÏÚÖÅ ×Ù×ÅÛÕ ÆÏÔÏÇÒÁÆÉÉ Ó ÐÏÓÌÅÄÎÅÇÏ ÌÅÔÎÅÇÏ ÄÎÑ × íÏÓË×Å, ×ÅÓØÍÁ ÓÏÂÙÔÉÊÎÏÇÏ, Ó ÎÅÂÏÌØÛÉÍ ÏÔÞÅÔÏÍ.
    fyysik
    5:09p
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    gollie
    10:09a
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    Current Music: âÒÁÍÓ - çÏÒÏ×ÉÃ
    alexandrov_g
    6:48a
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    5:55p
    ÖÖ Ï ÔÅÒÁËÔÁÈ
    ïÄÉÎ ÒÁÚ - ÓÌÕÞÁÊÎÏÓÔØ [Sep. 1st, 2004|04:06 pm] [info]reincarnat
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    ðÏ×ÔÏÒÑÀ, ÅÓÌÉ "ÏÎÉ" Ó×ÁÌÑÔ ÷÷ð, ÓÏÒ×Á× ËÒÅÍÌÅ×ÓËÉÊ ÓÃÅÎÁÒÉÊ ÐÅÒÅÄÁÞÉ ×ÌÁÓÔÉ ÐÒÅÅÍÎÉËÕ, ÔÏ ÐÏÂÅÄÉ×ÛÉÅ ÌÉÂÅÒÁÌÙ (Á ÉÎÏÇÏ - ÎÅ ÄÁÎÏ) ÐÏÓÁÄÑÔ ÎÁÍ ÎÁ ÛÅÀ ÔÁËÏÇÏ ÐÅÒÃÁ, ÐÏ ÓÒÁ×ÎÅÎÉÀ Ó ËÏÔÏÒÙÍ ÄÅÄÕÛËÁ åâî ÐÏËÁÖÅÔÓÑ ÕÌØÔÒÁÇÏÓÕÄÁÒÓÔ×ÅÎÎÉËÏÍ. ÷ÅÓØ ÐÏÚÉÔÉ×ÎÙÊ ÐÕÔÉÎÓËÉÊ ÚÁÄÅÌ ÂÕÄÅÔ ÕÎÉÞÔÏÖÅÎ É ÍÙ ×ÅÒÎÅÍÓÑ × 1995-Ê ÇÏÄ. á ÎÁÉ×ÎÙÅ ÐÁÔÒÉÏÔÙ, ÐÒÉÍËÎÕ×ÛÉÅ Ë ÁÎÔÉÐÕÔÉÎÓËÏÊ ÏÐÐÏÚÉÃÉÉ, ÂÕÄÕÔ × ÏÞÅÒÅÄÎÏÊ ÒÁÚ ËÉÎÕÔÙ É ÒÁÓËÕÌÁÞÅÎÙ.

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    ðÒÉÚÎÁÎÉÅ ÛÅÆÁ ÒÁÚ×ÅÄËÉ 4:01p [info]pavell
    ëÏÇÄÁ × ÎÁÞÁÌÅ 80-È, ËÁÖÅÔÓÑ, × ìÉ×ÁÎÅ ÉÓÌÁÍÓËÉÅ ÜËÓÔÒÅÍÉÓÔÙ ÚÁÈ×ÁÔÉÌÉ × ÚÁÌÏÖÎÉËÉ ËÏÇÏ-ÔÏ ÉÚ ÓÏ×ÅÔÓËÉÈ ÇÒÁÖÄÁÎ, ëçâ ×ÚÑÌÏ × ÚÁÌÏÖÎÉËÉ ÐÌÅÍÑÎÎÉËÁ (ÉÌÉ ÄÑÄÀ?) ÌÉÄÅÒÁ ÇÒÕÐÐÉÒÏ×ËÉ. ðÏÓÌÅ ÞÅÇÏ ÔÏ×ÁÒÉÝ ÏÂÎÁÒÕÖÉÌ × ÐÏÞÔÏ×ÏÍ ÑÝÉËÅ ÏÔÒÅÚÁÎÎÕÀ ÇÏÌÏ×Õ, ÂÙÓÔÒÏ ×ÓÅ ÐÏÎÑÌ É ÚÁÌÏÖÎÉËÏ× ÏÓ×ÏÂÏÄÉÌ.

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    nenawist
    5:36p

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    Auguries of Innocence

    Current Music: Britten - [War Requiem Op66 Disc 1 - Richard Hickox & LSO #02] War Requiem Op66 2 Dies Irae
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    5:43p
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    Current Music: dismantled - unmanned
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    5:06p
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    Current Mood: tired
    Current Music: Kateter - GOLYJ MAL'CHIK
    nota_fe
    5:30p
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